Google's Got 99 Problems But Product Data Ain't One

Google's Got 99 Problems But Product Data Ain't One

Okay, we need to talk about what just happened at the National Retail Federation's Big Show on Sunday, because I'm having one of those "wait, did I just witness history or another tech nothingburger?" moments.

Walmart's incoming CEO John Furner and Google CEO Sundar Pichai just announced something that's either brilliant or desperate, depending on how cynical you're feeling today (I'm at about a 7/10 on the cynicism scale, which is actually pretty optimistic for me).

Here's the deal: Google's letting you buy Walmart stuff directly through Gemini using Google Pay. Which sounds boring until you realize this is Google basically saying "Hey OpenAI, remember all that infrastructure you don't have? Yeah, we've been collecting it for decades like some kind of digital hoarder."

The Part Where I Explain Why This Actually Matters (Bear With Me)

So I was doom-scrolling through the announcement details at 1 AM last night (my partner says I need better hobbies, but market analysis IS my hobby), and it hit me: this isn't about who has the better chatbot. ChatGPT might be winning the popularity contest, but Google's sitting on something OpenAI can't just code their way into—twenty years of product data and merchant relationships.

Think about it. OpenAI launched their Instant Checkout feature in October with Walmart and a handful of Shopify merchants (Skims, Vuori, Spanx—basically the entire "Instagram made me buy it" starter pack). Three months later and they're still struggling to scale it. Why? Because connecting to retailers isn't a tech problem you can solve with more parameters. It's a relationship problem. It's a data plumbing problem. It's the kind of unsexy infrastructure work that makes VCs fall asleep but actually determines who wins.

Google Shopping has been quietly aggregating product catalogs since before some of you reading this were born (sorry, that made me feel ancient). Every retailer already feeds them inventory data for search visibility. They're not building new pipes; they're just redirecting existing ones through Gemini. It's like OpenAI is trying to build a water distribution system from scratch while Google's just adding a new faucet to existing plumbing.

The Money Part That Made Me Spit Out My Coffee

Here's where it gets genuinely fascinating (and I use that word sparingly because everything is "fascinating" in tech writing and it's lost all meaning).

Google immediately—IMMEDIATELY—slapped ads into Gemini shopping. Not in six months. Not after careful testing. Day one. Meanwhile, OpenAI has reportedly put their advertising discussions on hold after Sam Altman declared "code red" about competition (which, sidebar: declaring code red publicly feels like shouting "I'M NOT PANICKING" while clearly panicking).

Google's Vidhya Srinivasan described it as giving retailers "flexibility to deliver value to people shopping in AI mode." Which is corporate speak for "we're going to show ads but make them feel helpful." The system watches your conversation, figures out when you're about to buy something, then slides in a "special offer" at the exact moment your credit card starts feeling itchy.

It's genius. Evil genius? Regular genius? I honestly can't tell anymore. But it's definitely genius.

Walmart Playing Everyone Like a Fiddle

This is my favorite part. Walmart partnered with OpenAI in October. Now they're partnering with Google. They also have their own chatbot called Sparky (which, can we talk about these AI names? Sparky? Really? What's next, Mr. Shoppy McShopface?).

John Furner said Walmart is "driving" the shift to agent-led commerce. But what they're actually doing is hedging their bets harder than a Wall Street trader before earnings season. They're not picking a winner; they're making sure they win regardless of who wins. It's the corporate equivalent of betting on every horse in the race.

The subtext here is beautiful: "We have no idea which AI platform will actually matter, so we're just going to be everywhere and pretend it was strategic brilliance when one of them works."

Google's History of Commerce Face-Plants (A Brief Retrospective)

Before we get too excited, let's remember Google's track record in commerce:

• Google Express: Dead

• Google Shopping Actions: Basically dead

• Google's various attempts to be Amazon: All dead

Google Shopping still exists, but it's basically a fancy referral system that sends people to buy stuff elsewhere (usually Amazon). They've been trying to crack commerce for over a decade with all the success of me trying to maintain a consistent sleep schedule.

So why would this time be different? Well, maybe because this time they're not trying to BE Amazon. They're trying to be the layer above Amazon. The place where purchases start before they end up... probably still on Amazon.

The "Universal Commerce Protocol" (Or: Google Trying to Own the Pipes)

Buried in the announcement was something called a "universal commerce protocol" that Google developed with Walmart, Target, and Shopify. This is Google trying to become the USB standard of AI commerce—the thing everyone has to use whether they want to or not.

If this works, it doesn't matter if people prefer ChatGPT or Claude or whatever Microsoft is calling Copilot this week. If everyone has to use Google's protocol to sell through AI, Google wins by default. It's like owning the roads and charging tolls regardless of what car people drive.

What Amazon's Doing While Everyone Else Panics

Amazon's response to all this? crickets

They've got Rufus (their shopping assistant) locked inside their own ecosystem like a digital hermit. No ChatGPT integration. No Gemini access. Nothing.

It's the defensive strategy of someone who's already winning: Why help potential competitors when customers already reflexively open your app for everything from toilet paper to obscure Hungarian novels?

But here's the thing—this is the first time Amazon's faced a real structural threat to their position as the default purchase destination. AI chatbots create a new interception point between "I want that" and "I bought that." Whoever controls that layer basically becomes the new shopping mall of the internet.

The Timeline Reality Check

Notice how Google's announcement didn't include launch dates? That's because the gap between "announcing AI commerce" and "AI commerce actually working" is roughly the size of the Grand Canyon.

OpenAI announced their checkout in October—it's barely rolling out now. Microsoft's Copilot Checkout launched like three days ago. The infrastructure required to make this work—inventory systems, payment processing, fraud prevention, customer service—doesn't magically appear just because you can talk to a computer.

The Bottom Line for People Who Actually Sell Stuff

If you're selling online (and if you're reading this newsletter, you probably are), here's what actually matters:

Google has the infrastructure advantage, but that doesn't mean people will actually use it. It's like having the world's best hammer when everyone's gotten pretty comfortable using rocks. Sure, the hammer's better, but behavior change is hard.

The real question isn't "Will AI chatbots change shopping?" It's "Will people trust a chatbot with their credit card more than they trust clicking 'Buy Now' on Amazon?"

And honestly? I'm watching my own shopping behavior, and I'm still going straight to Amazon for most things. Though I did ask ChatGPT for gift recommendations last week, so maybe the robots are winning after all.

We're either watching the biggest shift in commerce since the invention of the shopping cart, or we're watching very smart people build very sophisticated systems that nobody actually uses. Based on tech history, I'd say it's 50/50.

P.S. - Doug McMillon (Walmart's outgoing CEO) said AI will "change literally every job." Which is executive speak for "we're going to fire a bunch of people but need to be vague about it for legal reasons."

P.P.S. - The fact that Google can track your shopping behavior across search, YouTube, Gmail, AND now Gemini should probably concern us more than it does. But hey, at least the ads will be really, really targeted!

P.P.P.S. - If you made it this far, you deserve a medal. Or at least a personalized AI-generated coupon. Google's probably already working on it.

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• Amazon Ads is teeing up 2026 around Authenticated Graph reach, a one stop DSP, bigger live sports plays, and agentic tools for creative and full funnel campaigns.

• TikTok Shop is betting 2026 is trust season, ramping IP enforcement and counterfeit takedowns to nudge Western users into in app buying.

• AI personalization is overdoing it, and the new edge is restraint, with fatigue scoring, suppression rules, intent awareness, and clear “why we didn’t send” logs.

• Consumer AI predictions

• Social 2026 trends point to less AI slop, more authentic brand voices, deeper storytelling, IRL moments, and longer term creator deals over one off posts.

• An SEO trick turns Quality Rater Guidelines into an AI agent that audits your SERP plus page in a real browser, then spits out a scored checklist to beat rank 1.

• Gmail is getting Gemini brains, with AI Overviews, ask your inbox Q&A, smarter replies and writing help for all, plus an AI Inbox that highlights what matters.

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😍It was great, all I needed

🙂Good, not great

🙄It sucked